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Armenian society, or some segment of it at least, is becoming more active and less apathetic to the situation in the country, which can be summarized simply as one where the people are disrespected and ignored on a daily basis by their leaders. This leads me to speculate as to whether the political crisis brought about by the presidential elections and the turmoil that followed, might have inadvertently sowed the seeds for a bona fide civil society to grow in the country.
Since February 19, the Armenian Blogosphere has quadrupled, become a source for news in Armenia and served to organize on the grassroots level.
Below I have included a a few blog links that I hastily gathered to show what I’m talking about…
http://hnazarian.blogspot.com/2008/04/fyi.html
http://unzipped.blogspot.com/2008/04/council-of-europe-commissioner-human.html
http://unzipped.blogspot.com/2008/04/28-convicts-and-1-police-chief-demand.html
http://unzipped.blogspot.com/2008/04/killing-environmental-rally-in-yerevan.html
http://azat.wordpress.com/2008/04/10/serzh-sargssyan%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%9cinauguration%e2%80%9d/
http://ditord.wordpress.com/2008/04/30/the-armenian-people-and-the-dialogue-between-authorities-and-dialogue/
http://khirimian.wordpress.com/2008/03/29/the-right-wrong-path-toward-reform/http:/http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/04/21/opposition-womens-group-stages-rally/
http://www.ArmeniaNow.com
I am rather impressed with the amount of online activism in Armenia that blogs have spurred since the election. This type of activism should not be underestimated, I need only to point to the Armenian National Committee of America’s successful Click and Call for Justice Campaigns, which effectively mobilized thousands across the nation to call their representatives on Armenian issues. This in America, where we are not, on a daily basis, faced with even a fraction of the difficulty and challenges that people in Armenia face every day.
More people are blogging, and even more are engaging in virtual dialogue through email and comment posts on these blogs. I myself have somehow been added to a number of email threads, which have evolved into a daily conversation between more than a dozen people of different political beliefs on a number of issues. Through these email threads, Armenian’s are share news and opinion articles and discussing opposing positions on current events in Armenia.
Whether dialogue like this is productive remains to be seen. But I think there is potential. The question also of where this nascent “movement” is going and who will lead it, is still up in the air. It’s possible that it might end up being led by Heritage or the HHSh or one man (maybe LTP, although I dont think LTP cares much for a democratic movement as he has already accomplished his goal of humiliating, alienating, and weakening those who removed him).
But one sad reality is certain, if things don’t change, come next parliamentary elections, the people will come out in support of whoever leads this “movement,” as was the case in Pakistan with Benizir Bhutto. Chances are the authorities will once again interfere in the elections and then we will be facing some very serious and real problems–that is if Azeri President Ilham Aliyev doesn’t decide to attack Karabakh anytime soon.
I would like to see the Armenian Revolutionary Federation at the front lines of a grassroots democratic movement in Armenia–this is where they belong, I believe. Unfortunately they did not move into opposition after the elections and are currently part of the governing coalition.
I followed the Armenian Presidential Elections very attentively. ARF presidential candidate Vahan Hovannesian’s criticism of the current system and leadership for failing its people resonated with me—as did his political platform. His resignation as deputy speaker after Sarkisian won the election was, I believe, the principled step to take. It was admirable and just. But the ARF shouldn’t have stopped there as it had promised to take to the streets if the elections were rigged–which they were. Hovannesian’s move should have been followed by the party positioning itself in the opposition. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen–for various reasons (some understandable, some unacceptable).
It is my belief that If the ARF had dropped out of the coalition and become opposition, there would be an opportunity for the organization and its supporters to, through their actions, organize a grass roots movement out of the chaos that was March 1. If this scenario played out, I have no doubt they would have stood at the helm of the potential movement I am writing about. This is not far-fetched speculation, as anyone who knows the recent history of the Republic of Armenia, recognizes the romanticism attached to the ARF by the people of Armenia, especially during the 60s when Armenian nationalism experienced a re-awakening in the Soviet Republic and during the late 80s when thousands of Armenians rushed to Artsakh to protect and liberate their historic homeland.
Unfortunately that romanticism fades a bit more with every election year.
This year too, the ARF didn’t do as I, and many others would have liked, and this saddens me at the moment because Armenia is–in my opinion–facing an existential crisis right now for reasons we all know, yet sometimes ignore. A renewed war begun by a much stronger Azerbaijan is possible and very likely and with the government discredited and the people demoralized, I do not foresee the same number of Armenians rushing to the front lines to protect their homeland. Armenia does not have a sustainable economy and is ill equipped to deal with the economic pandemic that is spreading throughout the global economy. Armenia is also not immune to the world food and oil crisis either, which is spreading with increasing speed and threatening to topple governments much like Armenia’s. In terms of environmental disaster, Armenia is well on its way to becoming a desert within our lifetimes.
So now the question on my mind is, where is Armenia going? Is it moving forward like president Sarkisian assures us it is? Or is Armenia’s population becoming more disillusioned, disappointed and, dare I say it, radicalized? If it is being radicalized, is this good or bad for the country?
In any case, we will see how this all plays out.
ԱՅՕ՝ ԱՅԴՊԵՍ ԸՍԻ
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BBC
Russia has warned it will retaliate if Georgia uses force against its breakaway regions.
Moscow has accused Georgia of preparing to invade Abkhazia, and says it is boosting Russian forces there and in the South Ossetia region.
Georgia has reacted angrily to the Russian move, which its prime minister called “irresponsible”.
The EU also urged caution, saying to increase troop numbers would be unwise given current tensions.
Russia’s foreign minister said his country was not preparing for war but would “retaliate” against any attack.
Russia says Georgia is massing 1,500 soldiers and police in the upper Kodori Gorge, the only part of Abkhazia which remains under government control.
‘Retaliatory measures’
A statement from the Russian foreign ministry said that “a bridgehead is being prepared for the start of military operations against Abkhazia”.
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In response, it said, it was increasing Russian peacekeepers in both Abkhazia and Georgia’s other breakaway region of South Ossetia.
Georgia denies any build-up of its own forces in the area, and says that Russia is taking provocative action.
“We think that this step, if they take it, will cause extreme destabilisation in the region,” said Georgian Prime Minister Lado Gurgenidze.
“From now on, we consider every [Russian] soldier or any unit of military equipment coming in [to Abkhazia and South Ossetia] as illegal, potential aggressors and potential generators of destabilisation.”
After meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana called on Russia to show restraint.
“Even if the increase in peacekeepers is within limits, if we want to diminish the perception of tensions, I don’t think it is a wise measure to increase now,” Mr Solana said.
Mr Lavrov said that Russia had to protect Russian-passport holders in the regions and that if Georgia took military action, Russia would have to take “retaliatory measures”.
Mr Solana’s comments reflect a growing concern that Nato’s promise to admit Georgia as a member one day, despite strong Russian opposition, could have unpredictable consequences, says the BBC’s European affairs correspondent Oana Lungescu.
Peacekeeping force
Russia has kept a peacekeeping force in Abkhazia and South Ossetia under an agreement made following the wars of the 1990s, when the regions broke away from Tbilisi and formed links with Moscow.
Georgia’s president has vowed to reunite the country
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There are around 2,000 Russians posted in Abkhazia, and about 1,000 in South Ossetia.
Tensions between Russia and Georgia have flared up recently, despite Russia lifting economic sanctions against Georgia earlier this month.
Last week Georgia accused a Russian plane of shooting down an unmanned Georgian spy plane – which Russian authorities insisted was shot down by Abkhaz rebels.
And on Tuesday Georgia said it was blocking Russia’s entry to the World Trade Organization.
Many in Abkhazia believe that Kosovo’s announcement of independence from Serbia in February provides a precedent for it to be recognised as an individual state.
Although it has its own flag and postage stamps, it is not internationally recognised.
Our correspondent in the area says that with this latest statement the Russian government has pushed the already bellicose rhetoric between the two countries to a new level.
