on the silk road

(Stratfor)–March 5, 2008–

Summary
Azerbaijan accused Armenia of stoking unrest in the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh after a gunbattle  that killed 15 people March 5. Azerbaijan is using its petroleum wealth to arm itself for a potential conflict with Armenia over the separatist region, which on paper belongs to Azerbaijan but in reality is controlled by Armenia. The West does not want to see this conflict re-emerge, but Russia does — to a point.
Analysis
Following a gunbattle in the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan said 15
soldiers were killed and it accused its neighbor Armenia on March 5 of deliberately stoking
unrest in the breakaway region. If true, 15 dead would mark the worst clash in recent years
between Muslim Azerbaijan and Orthodox Christian Armenia, which technically remain at
war.
Renewed conflict in the disputed enclave would displease the West, but would suit Russia
just fine unless Azerbaijan scores a decisive win — something becoming increasingly likely,
however, as Azerbaijan converts its petroleum wealth into armaments.
Pro-Armenian forces seized the ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh in a war in
the 1990s. The two sides have remained in a tense deadlock over the territory ever since, but
the conflict has been relatively dormant since a 1994 cease-fire. Technically,
Nagorno-Karabakh is still part of Azerbaijan, even though Armenia controls it. International
pressure, lack of support from every nation but Russia and Iran, and fear of Azeri retaliation
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have kept Armenia from annexing the territory. Azerbaijan has been held back from retaking
the land due to pressure from the West and the Azeri military’s relative weakness.
But the situation slowly has been changing as Azerbaijan has grown stronger and richer
following the 2006 completion of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, which Western
companies developed to feed oil to Europe. The BTC led to a more pro-Western Azerbaijan,
and the tremendous new wealth it generated has helped the country increase its defense
spending from $175 million in 2004 to more than $1 billion at the start of 2008.
This, of course, has Armenia more than nervous, but the much poorer country can barely
increase its spending to follow Azerbaijan’s lead. In the past year, Armenia has increased its
defense spending by 20 percent, from $125 million to $150 million — almost all of which was
spent on boosting its defensive capabilities.
The Azeris constantly speak about wanting to take Nagorno-Karabakh back by force, and
now actually are closing in on the ability to do so. And there is another force pushing for a
conflict: Russia.
Following the 2004 eviction from its military bases in nearby Georgia after the Rose
Revolution, Russia has been slowly withdrawing its vast military equipment from Azerbaijan’s
and Armenia’s fellow country in the Caucasus. Officially, Russia said the last of its equipment
was removed from Georgia in the summer of 2007 and much of the hardware was shipped
back to Russia. But quite a bit of it was relocated to Russia’s large base in Gyumri, Armenia.
Uncertainty remains about the relocation of 40 armored vehicles and 20 tanks; Russia says
they are back home, but Azerbaijan suspects they are in Armenia.
Armenia has accused Moscow of helping fuel Azerbaijan’s military buildup. It alleges that
quite a bit of the military equipment from Georgia found its way to Azerbaijan.
Russia has myriad reasons to fuel another conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. First, the Kremlin is
still smarting after the West recognized Kosovar independence from Serbia despite Russia’s
and Serbia’s vigorous objections. In the run-up to Kosovar secession, Russia insisted that the
breakaway province’s independence would cause flare-ups in other separatist regions. A
renewed scuffle over Nagorno-Karabakh would represent a major told-you-so for Moscow.
Second, Russia is very interested in destabilizing Azerbaijan and in having the West become
displeased with Azerbaijan. The United States and Europe have warned Azerbaijan not to
restart conflict with Armenia — especially the United States, which has a very large Armenian
diaspora with a great deal of clout in Washington. During an election year, U.S. politicians
cannot afford to offend constituencies, so they are liable not to ignore pressure from
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Armenian-Americans. The West worries that renewed conflict could destabilize their
investments in Azeri energy infrastructure.
Third and last, Russia would just relish the opportunity that renewed conflict would create for
it to sweep in as the great mediator. Moscow repeatedly has said it wants to send troops,
perhaps as part of a peacekeeping force, into Nagorno-Karabakh. More fighting would give it
the perfect opportunity to do so.
Ultimately, having the southern Caucasus in flames greatly increases Russia’s leverage with
every player previously mentioned. However, Moscow does have one concern: what if
Azerbaijan actually wins the fight against Armenia? A victory by Baku would be a palpable
blow against Russian power, allowing Azerbaijan to continue on its Westward push without
fear of Moscow.

YEREVAN (Asbarez)–Armenia’s president imposed a state of emergency on Saturday after protests against alleged fraud in last month’s presidential elections turned violent. The announcement from the office of President Robert Kocharian came shortly after police fired shots in the air and tear gas to disperse demonstrators. Police earlier broke up a protesters’ tent camp housing hundreds of people. Kocharian’s office said the state of emergency would last 20 days. Armenian police early Saturday morning dispersed a demonstration by opposition supporters who had camped out in the capital for more than a week to protest the results of presidential elections. The police moved in before 7 a.m. and began forcing protesters onto buses. A few clashes broke out on the central Yerevan square. The Armenian Health Ministry said 31 people, including six policemen, had sought treatment for injuries in the clash; it said 10 people were hospitalized, but did not state the severity of their injuries nor how many of them were police.The opposition has protested the results of the Feb. 19 presidential election results and tried to force a new vote. About 2,000 demonstrators marched through Yerevan on Saturday afternoon, but many downtown streets and the square that had held the camp were closed off by police. Demonstrators threw trash on some cars and pounded on a police vehicle. The observer mission from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said there were concerns about the vote count, but it issued a generally positive assessment. Ter-Petrosian, a former president of Armenia, appealed to the Constitutional Court on Friday to overturn the results. The post-election unrest in Armenia deepened on Saturday evening as thousands of people rallied and barricaded themselves on a major street intersection in central Yerevan in anticipation of another government attempt to forcibly end the ongoing opposition protests. The crowd, furious with the break-up earlier in the day of an overnight protest by fellow supporters of Ter-Petrosian, blocked all streets leading to the area with buses and other vehicles seized from riot police that tried unsuccessfully to disperse them several hours earlier. Ter-Petrosian associates urged the protesters not go home. “Levon Ter-Petrosian told us to stay here and wait for him,” one of them, Aram Sarkisian, said. However, Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian denied rumors that Ter-Petrosian was placed under house arrest, saying that officers of the State Protection Service (SPS) were deployed outside his house only to ensure his personal security. Oskanian said they will be removed from there if Ter-Petrosian renounces the services of his bodyguards employed by the SPS. Speaking at a joint news conference with a deputy chief of the Armenian police, Oskanian echoed police claims that the more than one thousand opposition supporters camped in Liberty Square themselves attacked security forces before being dispersed by the latter. Meanwhile, another opposition leader, Nikol Pashinian, urged the protesters massing in the vast area outside the Yerevan municipality and the French Embassy in Armenia to boost their “self-defense” and brace themselves for a possible police attack. He also told them to reinforce the barricades set up there following the police attempt to disperse several hundred opposition supporters who gathered there by noon. Many protesters were already armed with metal and wooden sticks and sounded bullish about taking on security forces. Some held truncheons and shields seized from riot police. Angry protesters also set ablaze a police jeep which eyewitnesses said raced through the street intersection and ran over two women. They said a policeman that drove it escaped the scene unharmed.

pictures courtesy of Onik Krikorian @ blog.oneworld.am